BILIBILI(BILI) 天风证券·2024-11-19 12:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili, with an expected price increase of over 20% within the next six months [1]. Core Insights - Bilibili achieved its first positive adjusted net profit, driven by strong growth in game revenue from the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [1]. - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached 73.1 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 2.3% [1]. - Adjusted net profit for the quarter was 2.4 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 2.9%, with a gross margin of 34.9%, also above expectations [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Mobile Games: Revenue was 18.2 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's estimate by 9.8%, with a year-over-year growth of 84%, primarily driven by the performance of "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" [1]. - Advertising: Revenue reached 20.9 billion yuan, slightly above expectations by 0.3%, with a year-over-year increase of 28%, attributed to improved advertising products and efficiency [1]. - Value-Added Services (VAS): Revenue was 28.2 billion yuan, below expectations by 1.2%, with a year-over-year growth of 9% [1]. - IP and Derivatives: Revenue was 5.7 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 7.8%, but showed a year-over-year decline of 2% [1]. Profitability - Adjusted net profit was 2.4 billion yuan, marking a significant improvement from previous losses, with a gross margin increase of 9.9 percentage points year-over-year [1]. - Operating costs were 47.6 billion yuan, with revenue-sharing costs accounting for 29.1 billion yuan [1]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that Bilibili's cost reduction and efficiency improvements are significant, and the company is expected to benefit from its strategy of developing high-quality self-researched games for global distribution [1]. - Revenue forecasts for FY24E-FY26E are projected at -1.3 billion, 20.6 billion, and 38.6 billion yuan respectively [1].