电价研究框架深度分析：燃煤电量电价三因子模型

Industry Rating - The report assigns a Buy rating to the utility sector, specifically focusing on the power pricing framework [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of rationalizing long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and reducing short-term market volatility. It highlights the transition of thermal power from fluctuating profit per unit to stable profit per installed capacity [2] - The report introduces a three-factor model for coal-fired power pricing, focusing on generation costs, power supply-demand dynamics, and competitive landscape. It suggests that coal prices, while historically significant, should be de-emphasized in the short term due to stabilizing trends. Power supply-demand tension and competitive dynamics are identified as key drivers of pricing [3] - The report forecasts power pricing in key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, and Guangdong, analyzing coal prices, power demand, and competitive structures. It identifies regions like Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai as having favorable supply-demand and competitive conditions [3] - The report highlights the increasing stability of thermal power profitability and the sector's transition towards utility-like characteristics. It recommends focusing on companies with long-term advantages, such as Waneng Power, Zheneng Power, Shenergy, and others [3] Regional Analysis - Coal Prices: The report notes that coal prices have stabilized, making cost control more predictable. Key indicators to monitor include imported coal and inventory levels [3] - Power Demand: Industrial upgrading has significantly increased power demand elasticity in regions like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Anhui. The report predicts strong upward demand elasticity for thermal power in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, while Anhui maintains a high level of demand [3] - Competitive Landscape: The report analyzes the competitive structure of thermal power in key provinces. For example, Zhejiang has a high concentration of thermal power capacity (CR1 at 45%), while Guangdong has a more fragmented market with CR3 at 35%. The report concludes that Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai have relatively favorable competitive conditions, while Shandong and Guangdong show potential for future demand growth [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable profit per installed capacity, such as Waneng Power, Zheneng Power, Shenergy, Huadian Power International (H), Huaneng Power International (H), and China Resources Power (H). It also highlights Guangzhou Development as a company with significant potential for valuation upside [3] Power Pricing Mechanism - The report reviews the evolution of China's power pricing mechanism, from benchmark pricing to market-based pricing. It highlights the introduction of capacity pricing and ancillary service pricing as key developments in stabilizing thermal power profitability [30][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of capacity pricing in ensuring a profit floor for thermal power and ancillary service pricing in reflecting the value of thermal power's regulatory role [32] Supply-Demand Dynamics - The report constructs a framework for analyzing thermal power utilization hours, focusing on GDP growth, power demand elasticity, and the structure of power supply. It predicts that future thermal power pricing will be supported by sustained demand growth, limited growth in inter-provincial power imports, and reasonable thermal power capacity additions [69] - The report notes that industrial upgrading has driven an increase in power demand elasticity, particularly in the secondary and tertiary industries. It also highlights the role of residential electricity consumption in boosting overall power demand elasticity [78][84][90]