银行资负跟踪：财政发行加速不影响年底前货币宽松

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The central bank's recent operations indicate a shift from net withdrawal to net injection, with a total of 1,871 billion yuan injected into the market to address the upcoming maturity of 14,500 billion yuan in MLF and tax period disturbances. This suggests a potential for further monetary easing in the coming weeks [2][38] - Government bond financing has seen a net payment of 1,830.46 billion yuan this period, with expectations for the next period to rise to approximately 3,775.33 billion yuan, indicating a significant rebound. The overall fiscal impact is expected to be neutral to slightly positive due to the central bank's supportive stance [2][39] - The funding rates have shown slight increases, with DR007 rising by 11.3 basis points to 1.72%. The market is expected to experience further easing in monetary policy, with a higher probability of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in late November [2][40] Summary by Sections 1. Fiscal Issuance and Monetary Easing - The central bank's operations have transitioned to net injections, with significant MLF maturities and tax period impacts being managed effectively. The expectation is for continued monetary easing to support fiscal measures [2][38] 2. Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank conducted 18,014 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.50%, with a net injection of 1,871 billion yuan. The funding rates have fluctuated, indicating a tightening followed by a gradual easing trend [2][40] 3. Bank Financing Tracking - The average issuance rate for NCDs has decreased to 1.89%, with a positive net financing in the interbank market. The issuance of commercial bank bonds remains stable, with a focus on maintaining liquidity amid upcoming fiscal pressures [2][41][44]