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煤炭行业周报(2024年第45期):旺季来临煤价趋势向好,低PB估值优势凸显
GF SECURITIES·2024-11-19 13:03

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - The coal market has shown a slight decline in prices recently, but expectations for demand improvement are rising as the winter storage season approaches [5][6] - The report highlights that the coal price is expected to stabilize and rebound due to increased demand from power plants as temperatures drop and macroeconomic conditions improve [5][6] - The report emphasizes the low price-to-book (PB) valuation advantage in the coal sector, suggesting potential for investment [5] Market Dynamics - Recent market dynamics indicate a slight decline in port coal prices, with the CCI5500 coal price index dropping by 8 RMB/ton to 845 RMB/ton [5][51] - The report notes that the overall coal demand has been weak, but with the onset of winter, the daily coal consumption at coastal power plants has turned positive [5][75] - The report mentions that coal production has gradually increased, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2% in the first ten months of the year, although production in October saw a month-on-month decline of 0.6% [5][75] Industry Perspective - The report states that since October, the coal market has been generally weak, but with the arrival of winter storage demand and continued macroeconomic support, coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound [5][6] - The report identifies key companies with strong dividends and low valuations, such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, as potential investment opportunities [6] Key Companies - The report highlights several key companies for investment: - Companies with stable earnings and high dividends: Shaanxi Coal, China Shenhua - Companies with low valuations and long-term growth potential: Yanzhou Coal, China Coal Energy, Xinji Energy - Companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and low PB ratios: Huabei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Huayang Co., Shanmei International, Shougang Resources [6]