九阳股份：三季度业绩承压，期待后续修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.28 yuan [2][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.182 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.84%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 98 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.02% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 1.795 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.12%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was -77 million yuan, turning negative compared to the same period last year [1] - Domestic demand remains weak, with the overall retail sales of small kitchen appliances in China declining by 4.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 and 2.7% in Q3 [1] - Export business is under pressure due to the end of overseas restocking and a high base from the previous year [1] - The company adjusted its annual related-party transaction amount to 231 million USD, a decrease of 20.5% compared to the previous year, and added R&D service-related transactions worth 24 million yuan [1] - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 was 21.85%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points, while the operating expense ratio increased by 10.7 percentage points year-on-year to 27.89% [1] - The company plans to sell 68.4517% of its equity in Shenzhen Beetle Intelligent Co Ltd for 169 million yuan, expecting an investment income of 35 million yuan [1] Financial Forecasts - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 164 million yuan, 361 million yuan, and 387 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.21 yuan, 0.47 yuan, and 0.50 yuan [2][9] - Revenue is forecasted to be 8.74 billion yuan, 9.254 billion yuan, and 9.81 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -9.1%, 5.9%, and 6.0% [7] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 24.8%, 25.6%, and 25.5% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7] - The net profit margin is projected to be 1.9%, 3.9%, and 3.9% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7] Industry and Market Context - The small kitchen appliance market in China is experiencing low demand, with retail sales declining by 4.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company faces challenges in both domestic and export markets, with domestic demand remaining weak and export growth slowing due to high base effects [1] - The industry is characterized by intensified competition and rising raw material costs, which have impacted the company's profitability [1] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company is valued at 24 times the 2025 P/E ratio, based on comparable companies, with a target price of 11.28 yuan [2][9] - Comparable companies in the industry include Supor, Bear Electric, and Roborock, with adjusted average P/E ratios of 24.49 for 2025 [10]