煤炭行业周报：动煤有望开启旺季行情，焦煤静待需求改善

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Shaanxi Coal and a "Hold" rating to several other companies including China Shenhua, Yancoal Energy, and Huabei Mining [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. Core Insights - The report indicates that thermal coal prices have slightly decreased, while power plant daily consumption continues to rise, suggesting a potential increase in demand for thermal coal as winter approaches [26][73]. - Coking coal prices remain weak, with expectations of a stable but low price environment due to declining steel prices and anticipated reductions in iron production [21][73]. - The report highlights a mixed outlook for coal demand, with short-term weakness in coking coal but potential long-term improvements driven by favorable policies in real estate and related sectors [21][73]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of November 15, the Qinhuangdao thermal coal price was 850 RMB/ton, down 8 RMB/ton week-on-week; the long-term contract price for November 2024 was 699 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous month but down 2.0% year-on-year [26][31]. - The total coal inventory at northern ports reached 28.15 million tons, an increase of 1.87 million tons week-on-week [31][32]. - Daily consumption for coastal provinces averaged 1.89 million tons, up 124,000 tons week-on-week, indicating rising demand [31][36]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices as of November 15 were stable for Shanxi at 1700 RMB/ton, while Australian coking coal decreased by 50 RMB/ton to 1660 RMB/ton [21][45]. - The coke price index was 1671 RMB/ton, down 3 RMB/ton week-on-week, with the cost index at 1776 RMB/ton, indicating a price-cost gap of 105 RMB/ton [49]. 3. Downstream Changes - Iron production has seen a slight increase, with daily average iron output from 247 sample steel mills at 235.94 tons [55]. - Steel prices have shown a decline, which may impact coking coal demand in the short term [73]. 4. Futures Market - The report notes a decline in futures prices for both coking coal and coke, reflecting the current market sentiment [58]. 5. Transportation - There has been a slight decrease in both sea and land transportation prices, which may affect overall coal pricing dynamics [63].