食品饮料行业周报（2024年第47周）

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the food and beverage sector has experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling approximately 3.3% from November 11 to November 15, while the food and beverage sector dropped about 3.6% during the same period. Despite this, the overall valuation of the food and beverage industry has seen some recovery but remains at historically low levels [4][13][22]. Market Review - From November 11 to November 15, the Shanghai Composite Index had a decline of approximately 3.3%, with a weekly trading volume of about 27,369.6 billion yuan. The food and beverage sector's trading volume was around 2,138.7 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of about 3.6% [13]. - As of November 15, the food and beverage industry valuation has slightly recovered but is still at a historical low. The ROE percentiles for various segments are as follows: Beverage Dairy (81.0%), Baijiu II (79.3%), Non-Baijiu (70.7%), Seasoning Fermentation II (63.8%), Snack Foods (34.5%), and Food Processing (0.0%) [22]. High-Frequency Data Tracking - The retail sales of consumer goods in October showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with urban retail sales up by 4.7% and rural retail sales up by 4.9% [2][26]. - The Citigroup China Economic Surprise Index rose to 20.5 on November 15, indicating a continuous recovery [2][28]. - In the liquor segment, the production of Chinese Baijiu in September was 363,000 kiloliters, down 9.9% year-on-year [2][33]. - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.12 yuan per kilogram as of November 7, down 0.01 yuan from the previous week and down 15.9% year-on-year [2][35]. - In the meat products category, beef prices fell by 13.4% year-on-year in October, while pork prices increased by 14.2% [2][36]. - The beer production in September was 2,904,000 kiloliters, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [2][40]. Industry News and Company Announcements - In the first ten months of 2024, Sichuan's Baijiu production was 1,104,000 kiloliters, down 1.2% year-on-year, while beer production increased by 9.1% [3][45]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 45,396 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [3][46]. - The Ministry of Commerce has implemented anti-dumping measures on brandy imported from the EU, effective from November 15, 2024 [3][47]. - Companies such as Qiaqia Food and Chongqing Beer have announced share buyback plans and dividend distributions, respectively [3][48].