商贸零售行业跟踪报告：特朗普上台对跨境电商产业链影响测算

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the retail industry [1]. Core Insights - The report discusses the potential impact of Trump's re-election on cross-border e-commerce, particularly regarding tariff increases on Chinese imports, which could reach up to 60% [1]. - It highlights the challenges faced by the 9610 export model in the U.S. and the implications of potential tariff changes on various companies in the cross-border e-commerce sector [1][21]. - The report provides detailed scenarios analyzing the effects of tariff increases on specific companies, including Pinduoduo, Huakai Yibai, and Saiwei Times, with projections on revenue and profit margins [1][8][188]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Impact of Tariffs on Cross-Border E-Commerce Platforms - The 9610 export model, which allows low-value goods to enter the U.S. without tariffs, may face increased scrutiny and potential changes in regulations [21][22]. - The report notes that in FY 2023, over 1 billion small packages entered the U.S., with significant contributions from platforms like SHEIN and Temu [1][36]. Section 2: Effects of Tariffs on Specific Companies - For Huakai Yibai, if the "small value exemption" is canceled but no tariffs are added, the profit margin could decrease by approximately 1.8 percentage points, but the company could maintain profitability with a price increase of 11% [188]. - Saiwei Times, which derives 90% of its revenue from the U.S., could see a profit margin decrease of 6.8 percentage points if tariffs are raised to 40%, potentially leading to losses [194]. - Pinduoduo is expected to achieve revenues of 422.6 billion, 525.6 billion, and 603.4 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with a strong cross-border team and growth in Europe and Japan [1][187]. Section 3: Recommendations - The report recommends Pinduoduo for its competitive pricing and market share growth potential in the domestic e-commerce market, alongside its strong cross-border capabilities [1][187]. - It also suggests that small commodity cities could benefit from shifting exports to "Belt and Road" countries if U.S. tariffs are implemented [1].