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Djibouti Country Climate and Development Report
世界银行·2024-11-19 23:03

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Climate change threatens Djibouti's development goals, potentially leading to economic losses equivalent to nearly four years of current output by mid-century due to increased extreme heat, drought, and floods [49][55] - Policies and investments aimed at climate adaptation can significantly reduce economic damages, with a limited set of priority actions capable of halving potential GDP losses [50][76] - Significant infrastructure investments have been made, but Djibouti must ensure these assets deliver on their promise for resilience and economic diversification [51][56] - Capacity building, economic reform, and skills development are critical for successful adaptation and diversification [53][78] - Additional concessional resources are required for climate adaptation, with estimated needs exceeding US2.8billion[54][76]SummarybySectionsChapter1ClimateandDevelopmentDjiboutiseconomicgrowthhaselevatedittolowermiddleincomestatus,drivenbypoliticalstability,strategiclocation,andsignificantforeigndirectinvestment[86]Theeconomyisheavilyreliantontheservicessector,particularlytradewithEthiopia,makingitvulnerabletoexternalshocks[90]Chapter2CountryClimateCommitments,Policies,andCapacitiesThereportemphasizestheneedforastrongerinstitutionalframeworktoimplementclimatepoliciesandmobilizefinancing[83]Chapter3SelectedClimateandDevelopmentPrioritiesDjiboutisinterdependencewithneighboringcountriesthroughtradeandmigrationiscrucialforachievingdevelopmentprioritieswhileenhancingresilience[66]Investmentsinwatermanagement,urbanplanning,andhealthcareareessentialtosafeguardlivability[70]Chapter4MacroeconomicandWelfareImplicationsofClimateChangeClimateimpactscouldgenerateapermanentannuallossofupto62.8 billion [54][76] Summary by Sections Chapter 1 – Climate and Development - Djibouti's economic growth has elevated it to lower-middle-income status, driven by political stability, strategic location, and significant foreign direct investment [86] - The economy is heavily reliant on the services sector, particularly trade with Ethiopia, making it vulnerable to external shocks [90] Chapter 2 – Country Climate Commitments, Policies, and Capacities - The report emphasizes the need for a stronger institutional framework to implement climate policies and mobilize financing [83] Chapter 3 – Selected Climate and Development Priorities - Djibouti's interdependence with neighboring countries through trade and migration is crucial for achieving development priorities while enhancing resilience [66] - Investments in water management, urban planning, and health care are essential to safeguard livability [70] Chapter 4 – Macroeconomic and Welfare Implications of Climate Change - Climate impacts could generate a permanent annual loss of up to 6% of GDP by 2050, with cumulative losses estimated at US14-15 billion [75] - Adaptation investments are necessary to mitigate these impacts, with a focus on fiscal management and mobilizing international support [77] Chapter 5 – Conclusion and Recommendations - Economic reform, capacity building, and investment in skills are critical to the adaptation agenda, ensuring that infrastructure investments yield expected benefits [78]