商贸零售及社服行业2025年度投资策略：从反弹到反转，把握服务消费主线机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the commerce retail and social service industry, indicating a transition from rebound to reversal, with a focus on service consumption opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a rapid recovery in service consumption in 2025, driven by both fundamental improvements and valuation recovery. It highlights that the industry faced challenges in 2024, with price reductions having minimal impact on demand, leading to a situation where revenue increased but profits did not. A recovery phase is expected in Q4 2024, with intermittent positive growth [1][7]. - Key investment themes include focusing on the transformation of dining, supermarkets, and travel sectors, as well as the ongoing recovery of platforms like Meituan and OTA [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Confidence Recovery - The report emphasizes the need to focus on consumer confidence recovery, noting that first-tier cities are experiencing weak consumer spending compared to national averages. For instance, from January to September 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai showed negative growth [18][20]. 2. Retail Sector Dynamics - The retail sector is undergoing significant changes, with a shift from expansion to optimizing existing stores. The report highlights that the decline in rental prices and the slowing growth of online penetration create opportunities for offline retail to provide better service and emotional value [29][37]. 3. Dining Sector Insights - The dining sector is expected to benefit from consumption stimulus policies, with major brands exploring new growth avenues through brand incubation and market expansion into lower-tier cities. The report recommends companies like Yum China and Haidilao for their strong operational resilience and shareholder return strategies [47][50]. 4. Policy Support - Continuous policy support is highlighted, particularly in the mother and baby, human resources, and tourism sectors. The report notes that the domestic tourism demand remains robust, which is expected to support long-term growth [7][20]. 5. International Expansion Opportunities - The report identifies potential opportunities in the international market, particularly for platform companies and IP exports. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring changes in tariff policies and supply chain adjustments [7][20]. 6. Quality Growth and Competitive Upgrades - The cosmetics and medical aesthetics sectors are noted for their competitive upgrades, with a shift towards brand power competition. The report recommends companies like Juzhibio and Proya for their focus on high product quality and brand strength [7][20].