XIAOMI(01810) 东吴证券·2024-11-19 23:29Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 256.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.63 billion yuan, up 14.8% year-on-year. The performance exceeded market expectations [1] - The automotive gross margin continues to exceed expectations, with a target of 130,000 units for the year. In Q3 2024, the smart vehicle business revenue increased by 52.3% quarter-on-quarter to 9.7 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 17.1% [1] - The domestic market share of smartphones has improved, with a successful high-end strategy. In Q3 2024, smartphone revenue reached 47.45 billion yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year, and the company aims for a 16.4% year-on-year increase in sales for 2024 [1] - The new retail expansion and product innovation have led to significant growth in air conditioning and washing machine shipments. In Q3 2024, the IoT business generated revenue of 26.1 billion yuan, up 26.3% year-on-year [1] - The company expects continued benefits from the high-end and global layout of its smartphone and AIoT businesses, with adjustments to net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 280.04 billion yuan, with a forecast of 342.2 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 26.29% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.47 billion yuan in 2022, expected to rise to 19.76 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 13.07% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.79 yuan for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 33.25 based on the closing price on November 19, 2024 [1] Automotive Business - The automotive business revenue in Q3 2024 was 9.7 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 17.1%, driven by lower core component prices and increased sales [1] - The company has raised its annual delivery target to 130,000 units, with a monthly delivery exceeding 20,000 units in October 2024 [1] Smartphone Business - In Q3 2024, smartphone revenue was 47.45 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 11.7%. The company achieved a market share of 14.7% in mainland China, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points [1] - The introduction of the new flagship Xiaomi 15 series is expected to enhance the company's high-end positioning [1] IoT and Retail Expansion - The IoT business revenue for Q3 2024 was 26.1 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.8%. The company plans to increase its retail stores to approximately 15,000 by the end of 2024 [1] - Significant growth in shipments of air conditioning, refrigerators, and washing machines was noted, with year-on-year increases of 55%, 20%, and 50% respectively [1]