宏观策略报告：美元短期持续走强，后续何去何从？

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent strengthening of the US dollar, which has risen from a low of 100.157 on September 27 to a high of 107.064 on November 14, marking a 6.9% increase. Non-US currencies have depreciated significantly, with the USD/JPY, USD/MYR, and USD/THB falling by 10.10%, 9.2%, and 8.63% respectively [2][11][13] - The primary reasons for the dollar's rise include the ongoing improvement in the US economy, a recovering labor market, rising inflation, and the impact of Trump's election leading to a decrease in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This has resulted in a strong short-term outlook for the dollar index, while non-US currencies face significant depreciation pressure [5][13][19] - In the medium to long term, Trump's policies, including immigration and tariff measures, are expected to be implemented, which will further boost the US economy and inflation. The imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods and other countries will likely lead to a significant impact on the global economy, potentially resulting in a scenario where the US economy stands out, with a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][28] Group 2 - The report details that the US economy is showing signs of accelerated growth, with the October PMI for manufacturing at 48.5, exceeding expectations, and the services PMI at 55.3, indicating a robust economic outlook. The labor market is also improving, with a stable unemployment rate of 4.1% and a 4% year-on-year increase in average hourly earnings [14][18][19] - Inflation risks are rising, with the October CPI at 2.6%, up from 2.4% the previous month. Core CPI remains steady at 3.3%. The report anticipates that inflation will continue to rise due to factors such as rental and food inflation, as well as Trump's policies that may further increase domestic demand and supply-side pressures [19][25] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and the shift in its monetary policy stance indicate a cautious approach to future rate cuts, with market expectations for fewer cuts in 2025. The Fed's focus on economic data suggests that the need for aggressive rate cuts may diminish, impacting the overall monetary policy landscape [20][22][27]