东兴证券：东兴晨报-20241120

Group 1: Real Estate Market Insights - New home prices show greater resilience compared to second-hand homes, with first-tier cities exhibiting stronger price stability, while lower-tier cities have undergone significant adjustments [2][22] - In first-tier cities, both new and second-hand homes have long been in a tight supply-demand situation, supporting property prices. The relaxation of purchase restrictions is expected to release pent-up demand [3][23] - Second-tier cities display a mixed situation, with cities like Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Xi'an leading in price increases, while some new homes may face price pressure due to a large influx of new supply [3][23] - Third-tier cities are experiencing deep adjustments in both new and second-hand home markets, with limited further price decline expected due to cost support, but ongoing inventory pressure remains [3][23] Group 2: Consumer Retail Sector Analysis - In October 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year, benefiting from the early Double Eleven promotions and policy stimuli [11][28] - Essential consumption remains stable, while certain discretionary categories, such as cosmetics and home appliances, have seen explosive growth, with home appliance sales up 39.2% year-on-year [12][30] - Online retail continues to outperform offline channels, with online sales growing by 8.8% year-on-year, indicating a sustained trend towards high-cost performance consumption [14][31] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion policies and high-demand niches like cosmetics and medical beauty [16][32]