医药生物行业：青霉素头孢类上游价格高位震荡，4-AA价格探底企稳

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The prices of raw materials for pharmaceuticals have stabilized at a low point, with the PPI index for chemical drug raw materials manufacturing at 97.10 in September 2024, up 2.0 from the previous month and higher than the average of 95.47 in the first half of 2024, indicating a slight recovery [17][21] - Specialty raw material prices are also stabilizing, with products like Valsartan maintaining prices around 710-720 CNY/kg for over a year, suggesting the end of the downward price cycle [25][28] - Antibiotic products have seen significant price increases in recent years, with prices for upstream products like 6-APA and 7-ACA showing stability at high levels [42][44] - The market is expected to recover as downstream formulation clients finish destocking and begin replenishing inventories, alongside the release of new raw material drug varieties post-patent expiration [21][42] Summary by Sections 1. Raw Material Prices Stabilization - The PPI index for chemical drug raw materials fell below 100 in January 2023, reaching a low of 94.4 in May-June 2023, but has since shown a recovery trend [17][21] - As of September 2024, the index is at 97.1, indicating a bottoming out and slight recovery [18][21] 2. Specialty Raw Materials (1) Hypertension Products - Valsartan prices fluctuated significantly due to supply constraints but stabilized around 710 CNY/kg since June 2023 [25][28] - Other hypertension products like Irbesartan and Telmisartan have also shown price stability [28] (2) Hyperlipidemia Products - Atorvastatin's export price has decreased from 1800 CNY/kg in 2020 to 1300 CNY/kg by late 2023, maintaining stability since then [34] 3. Antibiotic Products (1) Cephalosporins - Prices for 7-ACA have shown an upward trend, with a recent price of 480 CNY/kg, while 7-ADCA has stabilized at around 520 CNY/kg [44][67] (2) Penicillin - The price of 6-APA has increased significantly from 140 CNY/kg in early 2020 to 350 CNY/kg in 2024, indicating strong demand [113][117] 4. Hormonal Products - Hormonal product prices have remained stable, with slight increases noted in recent months [42] 5. Veterinary Products - Prices for veterinary antibiotics like Florfenicol have stabilized after a decline, indicating a potential supply clearing phase [42] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xianju Pharmaceutical, Puluo Pharmaceutical, and Huahai Pharmaceutical, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery in the industry [21][42]