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电力设备:磷酸铁锂供需拐点即将出现,高压密产品有望提升利润弹性
INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES·2024-11-20 01:28

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the industry, specifically highlighting the potential of high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate (LFP) products [1]. Core Insights - The supply-demand dynamics for lithium iron phosphate are gradually improving, with high-end products expected to bring profit elasticity. The report emphasizes the leading position of Hunan YN in high-pressure dense products and suggests attention to companies like Fulin Precision, Longpan Technology, Defang Nano, and Wanrun New Energy [2][3]. Summary by Sections Supply Dynamics - The supply of lithium iron phosphate is expected to improve, with a total capacity of 4.106 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 56.5%. However, the growth rate is projected to slow to 9% in 2025, reaching a total capacity of 4.476 million tons. The demand growth is anticipated to outpace supply growth, particularly for high-pressure dense products [2][3]. Demand Dynamics - The demand for lithium iron phosphate cathodes is growing faster than the overall lithium battery industry. In September 2024, domestic lithium iron phosphate battery installations reached 41.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 70.9%, accounting for 75.8% of total installations. The report forecasts that by 2025, the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries will reach approximately 827.99 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30% [3][30]. Market Trends - The trend towards fast-charging lithium iron phosphate batteries is evident, with companies like CATL leading the development of high-pressure dense products. The report notes that the demand for high-pressure dense lithium iron phosphate is expected to rise significantly due to the increasing adoption of fast-charging technologies [4][35]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that while the overall industry remains in a state of oversupply, leading companies like Hunan YN are positioned to benefit from their scale and integrated supply chain strategies. The profitability of these leading firms is expected to improve as demand for high-pressure dense products increases [2][49]. Price Dynamics - The report indicates that lithium iron phosphate prices have reached a bottom and are beginning to rebound, with recent price increases of 2.4% and 2.7% for power and energy storage types, respectively. The demand during peak seasons and the strong order backlog for leading manufacturers are contributing to this price stability [46][48].