国泰航空：强者恒强，香港头部航司步入新机遇期

Investment Rating - Buy (首次评级) [3][6] Core Views - Cathay Pacific is a global airline with a strong presence in Hong Kong and the Greater Bay Area, operating both passenger and cargo services globally [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of international air travel, particularly from transit passengers from mainland China [5] - Cathay Pacific is well-positioned to capitalize on the long-term structural changes in the aviation industry, including the reopening of polar routes and the competitive advantage in long-haul routes [5] - The company is entering a new phase of growth starting in 2025, driven by the normalization of travel demand and the expansion of Hong Kong International Airport's third runway system [5] Business Overview Passenger Business - Cathay Pacific's passenger business has shown strong recovery post-pandemic, with passenger volume rebounding significantly in 2023 and continuing to grow in 2024 [4] - The company's passenger load factor and revenue per passenger kilometer (RPK) have improved, although ticket prices are expected to decline slightly as capacity increases [4] - Cathay Pacific is expected to maintain high ticket prices due to the supply-demand imbalance, with passenger demand still being released gradually [4] Cargo Business - Cathay Pacific is a leading player in the global air cargo market, with significant capacity deployed in Northeast Asia and North America [3] - The company's cargo business has remained strong, with cargo yields staying above pre-pandemic levels [4] - The company is expected to continue increasing cargo capacity, leveraging Hong Kong's position as a global air cargo hub [4] Financial Performance and Valuation - Cathay Pacific's net profit is expected to decline to HKD 7.133 billion in 2024 but rebound to HKD 9.008 billion and HKD 10.82 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively [6] - The company's ROE is projected to reach 10.9%, 12.6%, and 13.7% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] - Based on the PB-ROE valuation model, the target PB ratio for 2025 is 1.1-1.2x, implying a valuation range of HKD 78.7-85.8 billion, representing an upside potential of 37-50% [6] Strategic Advantages - Cathay Pacific benefits from its dominant position in Hong Kong's aviation market, with a market share of over 55% [102] - The company is expected to gain from the expansion of Hong Kong International Airport's third runway system, which will significantly increase capacity and open up new growth opportunities [104] - Cathay Pacific's extensive global network and focus on international routes position it well to benefit from the recovery of long-haul travel and the competitive advantages in the post-pandemic aviation landscape [5] Industry Outlook - The global aviation industry is expected to see a recovery in passenger demand, particularly in international travel, with Cathay Pacific well-positioned to benefit from this trend [5] - The air cargo market remains strong, with global demand for air freight continuing to grow, providing further growth opportunities for Cathay Pacific [132] - The long-term growth of the Greater Bay Area and the expansion of infrastructure in the region will further support Cathay Pacific's growth, particularly in the cargo segment [112]