山西证券：研究早观点-20241120

Group 1: Market Overview - The coal industry is experiencing a slowdown in supply growth, with prices stabilizing and expected to recover. Domestic coal production increased in Q3, partially compensating for earlier shortfalls, while imports continued to rise due to demand and profit-driven international trade [4][5][6] - The overall revenue for the coal mining sector decreased by 6.80% year-on-year to 1,024.2 billion yuan, with net profit down by 19.86% to 121.58 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024. However, Q3 showed a slight improvement in revenue and profit compared to Q2 [5][6] Group 2: Company Insights - Yongdong Co., Ltd. - Yongdong Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 3.166 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 5.54% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 38.43% to 82 million yuan. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.033 billion yuan, down 10.91% year-on-year, but net profit showed a significant recovery [12][17] - The company is focusing on deepening its carbon cycle economy chain, with ongoing projects expected to contribute to performance growth. The completion of a special carbon black project is anticipated to enhance production capacity significantly [16][17] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is expected to maintain high profitability due to stable domestic prices and recovering demand. Investors are advised to focus on high-dividend stocks and those with strong earnings potential, such as Guohui Energy and Pingmei Shenma Energy [6][18] - Yongdong Co., Ltd. is projected to have an EPS of 0.30, 0.60, and 0.94 for 2024-2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.2, 10.8, and 6.9. The company is rated "Buy-B" based on its growth potential in the carbon cycle economy [18]