金属行业周报：地产税收迎来优惠，锂下游需求预期乐观

Investment Rating - Steel: Neutral [4] - Non-ferrous Metals: Positive [4] Core Views - The domestic real estate tax incentives and the expansion of urban village renovation support are favorable for downstream demand in the steel industry. However, due to seasonal weather and routine maintenance at steel mills, the fundamentals of the steel industry may weaken in the near term, leading to potential pressure on steel prices [5]. - For copper, the concentration of smelter maintenance in November may lead to a supply contraction. The favorable policies for downstream demand, such as real estate tax incentives, are expected to support copper prices, although short-term prices may still be pressured by a strong US dollar [5]. - In the aluminum sector, the cancellation of export tax rebates may impact aluminum exports. Supply tightness is expected due to the rainy season in Guinea affecting imported ore. Attention should be paid to the important national meetings in December [5]. - The lithium market shows good downstream production performance, but there is significant pressure from oversupply. Current demand may be overstated due to year-end export rush behavior from downstream manufacturers, necessitating close monitoring of actual demand in November [5]. Summary by Sections Steel - The steel industry is entering a demand off-season, with downstream demand weakening. Supply is limited due to expectations of reduced demand, and inventory levels are being maintained [27]. - As of November 15, the procurement volume of Shanghai terminal rebar was 17,600 tons, down 11.56% week-on-week but up 4.14% year-on-year [28]. - The total steel inventory as of November 15 was 12.16 million tons, down 0.82% week-on-week and down 9.07% year-on-year [36]. Copper - The copper smelting fees have decreased, and supply remains tight. Domestic and international inventories are declining, with copper prices pressured by a strong dollar [49]. - As of November 15, the copper smelting fees were $10.90 per ton and 1.09 cents per pound, down 4.39% from the previous week [51]. - The LME copper spot price and the Changjiang nonferrous copper price were $9,100 per ton and 74,200 yuan per ton, respectively, down 2.87% and 4.07% week-on-week [53]. Aluminum - The price of alumina has strengthened due to tight bauxite supply and production disruptions from severe weather warnings. The cancellation of export tax rebates may affect aluminum exports [60]. - As of November 15, the LME aluminum spot price was $2,600 per ton, while the Changjiang nonferrous aluminum price was 20,900 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.56% and a decrease of 3.96%, respectively [61]. Lithium - The lithium market is experiencing a rebound in prices due to improved downstream demand expectations. However, there is significant oversupply pressure, and the current demand may be overstated [68]. - As of November 15, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 79,500 yuan per ton, up 5.30% week-on-week [69].