兴证建筑每周观点：“化债”再融资专项债陆续发行，大建筑央企基本面改善可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and decoration industry, specifically recommending several key companies for investment, including China Railway, China State Construction, China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, China Power Construction, China National Chemical Corporation, China National Materials, China Steel International, and Honglu Steel Structure [1][2]. Core Insights - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement is expected to improve the fundamentals of large construction state-owned enterprises, particularly those with high accounts receivable from local governments and urban investment platforms [3]. - The fixed asset investment in China from January to October 2024 reached 423,222 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, indicating a stable growth in infrastructure investment [4][7]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the 10 trillion yuan debt reduction policy, which is anticipated to accelerate the physical workload in infrastructure projects, leading to a rebound in the performance of large construction state-owned enterprises [3][4]. Summary by Sections Important Events Tracking - On November 12, 2024, Henan Province announced the issuance of 318.169 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds to replace hidden debts [21]. - On November 15, 2024, Jiangsu Province planned to issue 1,200 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds, all aimed at replacing hidden debts [21]. Market Performance Tracking - From November 11 to November 15, 2024, the construction engineering sector (SW) fell by 4.01%, while the overall A-share index decreased by 3.94% [23]. - The report notes that various sub-sectors within construction engineering experienced different levels of decline, with the material leasing sector dropping by 7.03% [25]. Industry Data Tracking - As of November 15, 2024, the cumulative issuance of special bonds for the year reached 39,015.88 billion yuan, accounting for 100.04% of the annual plan [5][32]. - The report indicates that the construction sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is at 10.11, with a historical percentile of 19.33%, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is at 0.79, with a historical percentile of 4.26% [28][30].