中国财政系列七：经济边际改善叠加化债，财政收支回升

Revenue Insights - In October 2024, general public budget revenue decreased by 1.30% year-on-year, with VAT down by 5.10% and corporate income tax down by 2.90%[3] - For the first ten months of 2024, total general public budget revenue reached CNY 184,981 billion, reflecting a decline of 1.3% compared to the same period in 2023[25] - Tax revenue for the same period was CNY 150,782 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 15.3% to CNY 34,199 billion[25] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in October 2024 increased by 2.70% year-on-year, with total expenditure for the first ten months amounting to CNY 221,465 billion[29] - Central government expenditure rose by 7.9% year-on-year, while local government expenditure grew by 1.8%[29] - Debt interest payments saw a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, marking the highest growth rate since May of the previous year[30] Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue in October 2024 fell by 19.00% year-on-year, with local government revenue declining by 21.00%[3] - The expenditure for government fund budgets decreased by 3.80% year-on-year, with central government expenditure increasing significantly by 29.50%[32] - Land use rights revenue dropped by 22.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the land market[31] Economic Risks - Short-term economic data volatility poses risks, particularly with rapid price increases in upstream sectors[3] - The decline in revenue from key taxes such as securities transaction stamp duty, which fell by 46.4%, reflects market adjustments and policy impacts[3]