2024年10月美国CPI点评：通胀全面符合预期，降息预期抬升

Inflation Data - October CPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, matching market expectations and up from 2.4% previously[1] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, consistent with market expectations and previous values[1] - Seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations and prior results[1] Price Trends - Energy prices remained stable, with a month-on-month change from -1.9% to 0.0%[2] - Food price growth slowed, with a month-on-month decrease from +0.4% to +0.2%[2] - Core goods prices fell to 0.0% month-on-month, with significant increases in used car and truck prices from +0.3% to +2.7%[3] Housing and Services - Core services inflation remained stable, with rent prices rebounding; rent increased from +0.2% to +0.4% month-on-month[3] - Major residence rent growth remained steady at +0.3% month-on-month[3] - Medical services prices decreased from +0.7% to +0.4% month-on-month, while entertainment services saw a positive shift from -0.5% to +0.7%[3] Interest Rate Expectations - December rate cut expectations rose to 82% probability for a 25 basis points cut following the inflation data release[4] - Short-term 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are expected to remain high, with long-term uncertainty regarding the Fed's rate cut path and potential inflationary pressures from policy changes[4]