ACEG(600502) 国泰君安·2024-11-20 05:20Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the company, with a target price of 7.07 CNY, unchanged from the previous rating [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 new contract signings increased by 18%, with significant growth in highway and water conservancy projects [6] - The company's valuation is expected to improve due to the China Securities Regulatory Commission's (CSRC) guidelines on market value management, which require long-term undervalued companies to disclose plans for valuation enhancement [11] - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 9.55%, with operating cash flow turning negative compared to the same period last year [11] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 53.963 billion CNY, a decrease of 9.96% year-over-year [11] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 962 million CNY, down 9.55% year-over-year [11] - The company's net profit margin was 1.78%, slightly up by 0.01 percentage points [11] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was -5.255 billion CNY, compared to 112 million CNY in the same period last year [11] New Contract Signings - Total new contract signings for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 103.76 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 2.2% [11] - Infrastructure projects accounted for 74.55 billion CNY, up 18% year-over-year, with highway and bridge projects growing by 71.8% and water conservancy projects by 333.4% [11] - In Q3 alone, new contract signings were 31.475 billion CNY, up 17.85% year-over-year, with highway and bridge projects growing by 166.9% [11] Valuation and Market Performance - The company's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.82x, near the 6th percentile of its 10-year historical range [11] - The stock's 52-week price range is 3.91-5.28 CNY, with a current price of 5.01 CNY [7] - The company's market capitalization is 8.6 billion CNY, with a net debt ratio of 209.40% [7] Industry and Policy Impact - The CSRC's market value management guidelines are expected to benefit the company, particularly as it is a state-owned enterprise (SOE) with a low PB ratio [11] - The company plans to achieve revenue of 97.5 billion CNY in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 6.9%, and a profit of 2.8 billion CNY, up 6.5% [11] - The company is positioned to benefit from local government infrastructure projects, with 551 major projects in Anhui province starting in 2024, with a total investment of 426.81 billion CNY [11]