有色金属：财政部取消铜材、铝材出口退税，加工贸易的“供给侧改革”

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of export tax rebates for copper and aluminum materials will significantly impact the majority of export products in these categories, with aluminum exports affected by 99% and copper exports by 86% [2][12] - The cancellation of tax rebates is expected to reduce copper demand by approximately 1.4% and aluminum production by around 8% [3][17] - The policy is likely to benefit leading companies by accelerating industry capacity clearance, while midstream processing companies may experience short-term profit suppression but can adjust through repricing and increasing processing ratios [5][25] Summary by Sections Export Tax Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper materials effective December 1, 2024 [1][11] - The affected aluminum products include 24 tax codes, while copper products include 34 tax codes [11] Impact on Export Volumes - In the first nine months of 2024, China's aluminum exports reached 4.6602 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with the affected products accounting for 462 million tons [2][17] - For copper, the export volume was 612,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, with the affected products making up 524,000 tons [2][12] Demand and Price Dynamics - The cancellation of tax rebates is expected to lead to a 1-2% decrease in copper demand, with a projected drop in copper exports by 210,000 tons in 2025 [3][13] - The aluminum industry, having a production capacity of 63.034 million tons in 2023, will see a significant impact on aluminum foil and aluminum plate exports, which account for 31% and 25% of total production, respectively [3][17] Industry Outlook - The cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to a temporary increase in domestic prices due to reduced export incentives, but long-term recovery in export volumes is anticipated as companies adjust to the new policy [5][26] - The policy may also shift some companies from general trade to processing trade, potentially stabilizing the supply-demand relationship in the industry [26]