银行投资观察：暂时较弱的流动性与银行投资思路切换窗口

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The banking sector showed a decline of 1.8% during the period from November 11 to November 15, 2024, outperforming the overall A-share market which fell by 3.9%. The performance of state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks varied, with changes of -0.98%, -2.69%, -1.87%, and +0.37% respectively [2][54] - The report suggests that the recent market downturn presents a good opportunity for a shift from dividend logic to recovery logic within the banking sector, recommending sensitive recovery-related stocks such as China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank, followed by banks with a significant number of small and micro clients like Ruifeng Bank and Changshu Bank [4][56] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Performance - The banking sector's performance was relatively better compared to the overall market, with a decline of 1.8% against a 3.9% drop in the Wind All A index. The Hang Seng Composite Index fell by 6.0%, while H-shares of banks dropped by 4.0% [2][54] 2. Individual Stock Performance - Among A-share banks, Changshu Bank rose by 5.44%, Ruifeng Bank by 3.93%, and Nanjing Bank by 0.88%. Conversely, Zhengzhou Bank fell by 6.82%, Qilu Bank by 5.53%, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank by 5.17%. In H-shares, Postal Savings Bank declined by 1.53%, while Zhengzhou Bank saw a drop of 6.60% [2][54] 3. Convertible Bonds Performance - The average price of bank convertible bonds decreased by 0.02%, outperforming the Zhongzheng convertible bond index by 0.89 percentage points. The top performers included Changyin Convertible Bond (+1.96%) and Hangyin Convertible Bond (+0.87%) [3][55] 4. Earnings Forecast Tracking - The report indicates that the earnings growth forecast for 2024 has seen changes for nine banks, with a slight increase in net profit growth forecast by +0.03 percentage points and a slight decrease in revenue growth forecast by -0.01 percentage points [4][55] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of adapting investment strategies in light of recent market conditions, suggesting a focus on recovery-related stocks and those with a strong client base in small and micro enterprises [4][56]