农林牧渔行业研究周报：标肥价差有所收窄，天气转冷或支撑商品猪出栏均价

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [6]. Core Insights - The average price of commodity pigs has decreased by 2.64% week-on-week, reaching 16.23 CNY/kg as of November 15, with expectations of stabilization and potential recovery due to seasonal demand increases [19][31]. - The average price of piglets has increased by 0.24% week-on-week, marking five consecutive weeks of price rises, while the price of two-way sows remained stable [19][31]. - The average price of culling sows has decreased by 2.75% week-on-week, with a price ratio of 0.74 compared to commodity pigs, remaining unchanged from the previous week [19][31]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average weight of commodity pigs at market has slightly increased by 0.02% week-on-week to 123.84 kg, while the post-slaughter average weight has decreased by 0.04% to 91.69 kg [26]. - The standard fat price difference has narrowed to -0.54 CNY/kg, indicating a potential recovery in demand for fat pigs, which may positively influence the market [26]. Profitability Analysis - As of November 15, the average breeding profit for self-breeding pigs is 206.53 CNY per head, a decrease of 57.22 CNY from the previous week, while external piglet purchases show a loss of 43.56 CNY per head, reduced by 10.59 CNY week-on-week [31][33]. - The report anticipates that the cold weather will boost winter demand for preserved products, supporting price stability and limiting downward price fluctuations [31][33]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with breeding scale and cost advantages, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [34]. - In the meat chicken breeding sector, attention is drawn to companies with proprietary white feather chicken breeds and parent stock enterprises [34]. - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from the upward pig cycle, with recommendations for companies like BioFarma and Zhongmu [34]. Market Performance - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a decline of 6.06% in the past week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.77% [38].