Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 35.6% from the current price of HKD 17.70 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The core OTA business is expected to grow faster than the industry average, with revenue projections of RMB 17.2 billion for 2024 and RMB 19.8 billion for 2025, reflecting growth rates of 19% and 16% respectively. The operating profit margin is anticipated to exceed 26%, leading to net profits of RMB 2.7 billion and RMB 3.4 billion for the respective years [1][2]. - The company reported a 51% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2024, reaching RMB 5 billion, which surpassed market expectations. The core OTA business revenue grew by 22%, driven by significant increases in both transportation and accommodation segments [2][3]. - The forecast for Q4 2024 anticipates a revenue increase of 29% to RMB 40.5 billion, with the core OTA segment expected to grow by 10% [2][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been slightly adjusted, with total revenue expected to be RMB 17.2 billion and RMB 19.8 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 44.2% and 15.7% [3]. - The adjusted operating profit margin is projected to improve to 16.3% for 2024 and 17.5% for 2025, with net profit margins expected to be 16.0% and 17.0% respectively [3][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin is forecasted to be 64.4% in 2024, slightly down from previous estimates, but still indicating strong profitability [3]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 22.58%, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 40.4 billion [6]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 22.30 and HKD 12.70 respectively, indicating significant volatility and potential for growth [6]. Summary of Earnings - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 9.1 billion in Q3 2024, a 47% increase year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 11% [2][3]. - The operational efficiency is improving, with marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue decreasing to 29%, which is better than the anticipated 33% [2]. Conclusion - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, driven by strong growth in the core OTA business, improved operational efficiency, and favorable market conditions, supporting the "Buy" rating and the revised target price [1][4][12].
同程旅行：核心OTA业务保持快于行业增速，利润率仍有优化空间