Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that rising inflation data in the US is leading to a downward trend in global assets, with A-shares facing adjustments due to the depreciation of the RMB and the index nearing resistance levels [2][14] - The US PPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year in October, exceeding expectations, which has raised concerns about renewed inflation and its impact on global equity markets [2][14] - The report suggests a focus on individual stocks rather than indices in the A-share market, highlighting potential opportunities in sectors such as long-term undervalued stocks, debt restructuring concepts, AI applications, self-sufficiency, and mergers and acquisitions in the tech sector [14] Equity Market - A-shares are experiencing a decline, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 showing a drop of 3.52% and 3.29% respectively [24][25] - The report notes that the market's trading volume remains stable above 1 trillion RMB, indicating a lower probability of significant short-term adjustments [14][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of sector rotation opportunities, particularly in industries like banking, non-banking financials, real estate, and steel [14] Bond Market - The report highlights the upcoming pressure on liquidity as 14.5 billion RMB of MLF is set to mature in December, alongside a rapid issuance of 2 trillion RMB in replacement bonds [3][15] - It suggests that the bond market may maintain a volatile trend due to these liquidity pressures and external factors, with a focus on the central bank's monetary policy responses [15][28] Commodity Market - The report discusses a significant adjustment in commodity prices, particularly in oil and gold, due to a slowdown in the expected pace of interest rate cuts and geopolitical factors [4][36] - Oil prices are under pressure from weak demand and expectations of increased production following Trump's election, while gold prices are declining due to reduced geopolitical risk and expectations of a slower rate cut pace [4][36] - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for gold in the long term, while oil is expected to remain weak due to oversupply [4][36] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report notes an increase in the AH share premium to 10.63%, which is above the historical median, indicating a potential opportunity for investment in this area [38] - The risk premium for the entire A-share market has also risen, suggesting a favorable environment for equity investments [38]
大类资产跟踪周报:美国通胀数据走高,全球资产多数下行
Caixin Securities·2024-11-20 07:08