原材料：天然铀受惠于全球核电未来十年的结构上升周期

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Outperform rating for the natural uranium industry, driven by a structural upward cycle in global nuclear power over the next decade [1] Core Viewpoints - The natural uranium market is expected to remain tight until 2028 due to a supply-demand imbalance, with a significant gap between primary supply and demand [1][34] - Long-term demand for natural uranium will be driven by factors such as AI development, global decarbonization, energy autonomy, and the increasing adoption of small modular reactors (SMRs) [1] - The global nuclear power sector is re-entering a growth phase, with 62 nuclear reactors under construction as of September 2024, most of which are expected to be operational by 2029 [1][13] - The report highlights that the natural uranium price needs to remain high to incentivize further uranium mining development to meet future demand [1] Industry Overview Global Nuclear Power Growth - The global nuclear power sector is expected to add an average of 11 GW of capacity annually from 2024 to 2029, significantly higher than the 2.1 GW average from 1988 to 2023 [1][13] - By 2029, the net nuclear capacity is projected to increase from 376 GW in 2024 to 432 GW, with a potential capacity of 500 GW by 2040, driving natural uranium demand to 92,000 tU [1][13] Natural Uranium Supply-Demand Dynamics - From 2024 to 2028, the primary supply-demand gap for natural uranium is expected to be 12,433 tU, 9,763 tU, 7,738 tU, 4,371 tU, and 1,228 tU respectively [1][34] - The supply-demand imbalance, although easing compared to previous years, is expected to persist due to ongoing disruptions in primary supply and the depletion of secondary supply [1][34] Long-Term Demand Drivers - The long-term demand for natural uranium will be supported by global decarbonization policies, AI-driven data center growth, and the adoption of SMRs [1][37][63] - SMRs, with their safety, flexibility, and cost advantages, are expected to significantly increase the penetration of nuclear energy, further boosting uranium demand [63][65] Key Companies - CGN Mining (1164 HK): The company, through joint ventures with Kazatomprom, holds four low-cost uranium mines in Kazakhstan and is expected to benefit from rising uranium prices. The report forecasts a 30%+ increase in uranium prices in 2024, with further 8% annual increases in 2025 and 2026 [1] - Cameco (CCJ US): As the second-largest uranium producer globally, Cameco is well-positioned to benefit from the rising uranium market, particularly due to its long-term contract strategy and high-grade uranium mines [1] Natural Uranium Market Recovery Historical Context - The natural uranium market experienced a price surge from 2000 to 2007 due to stable nuclear power development and a commodity supercycle, but prices declined after the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 [3] - Supply shocks, such as weather-related production cuts and geopolitical events, have historically influenced uranium prices, either accelerating price increases or mitigating declines [3] Post-2022 Market Recovery - Since 2022, uranium prices have entered an upward trend due to supply disruptions, including production cuts by major producers and political instability in key uranium-producing countries [4] - The recovery is also driven by increased government focus on nuclear power as a means to ensure energy security and combat climate change, as highlighted by the COP28 commitment to triple nuclear capacity by 2050 [4][40] Mid-Term Supply and Demand (2024E-2029E) Demand - The demand for natural uranium is expected to grow steadily, driven by new nuclear reactors coming online and strategic stockpiling by nuclear power plants [17][20] - By 2029, the demand for natural uranium is projected to reach 72,374 tU, with an annual growth rate of 3.3% to 6.5% from 2024 to 2029 [20] Supply - Primary supply is constrained by factors such as sulfuric acid shortages in Kazakhstan and political instability in Niger, which have disrupted uranium production [27][28] - Global uranium production is expected to increase from 56,154 tU in 2024 to 82,879 tU in 2029, but this growth may not be sufficient to meet demand, leading to continued supply deficits [28][30] Long-Term Supply and Demand (2030E-2040E) Demand - By 2040, global nuclear capacity is projected to reach 500 GW, with natural uranium demand reaching 92,000 tU under a base scenario [37] - The adoption of SMRs and the expansion of nuclear power in countries like China will be key drivers of long-term uranium demand [37][53] Supply - The long-term supply of uranium is expected to face challenges due to low exploration and development expenditures in recent years, which could limit future production [69] - Secondary supply, which has historically helped balance the market, is expected to decline, further exacerbating supply shortages [76] Key Risks - Delays in the construction and commissioning of planned nuclear reactors could reduce the expected demand for natural uranium [89] - Economic downturns or shifts in energy policy could slow the development of nuclear power, impacting uranium demand [89] - Technological advancements in energy storage or nuclear fusion could reduce the reliance on traditional nuclear power and uranium [89]