掘金2025：需求恢复，成长提速

Demand Recovery and Growth Acceleration - The aerospace and military industry is expected to experience a profit recovery similar to the 2020-2021 period, driven by the transition of the "Five-Year Plan" and increasing downstream demand[1] - The performance of the sector is anticipated to improve significantly as new contracts from downstream manufacturers are gradually realized, with a focus on the first half of 2025 and the 2025-2026 period[1] Supply Chain Dynamics - The midstream supporting enterprises are expanding their production capacity steadily, enhancing their ability to accept tasks from downstream and transmit orders from upstream[1] - The report highlights that the contract liabilities of major manufacturers serve as a leading indicator, with significant contracts from the "14th Five-Year Plan" being executed as expected, and new orders from the "15th Five-Year Plan" anticipated[1] Profit Recovery Expectations - The aerospace and military sector is projected to see a high expectation of profit recovery due to the low base from the mid-term adjustments in 2023-2024 and the upcoming demand from the next "Five-Year Plan"[1] - The report suggests that the next "Five-Year Plan" will bring substantial demand, leading to a potential turnaround in the sector's profitability[1] Investment Recommendations - Key areas for investment include information technology, new materials, aerospace engines, and emerging fields such as satellite internet and low-altitude economy[1] - The report recommends focusing on core sectors that are tied to new main battle equipment and have potential for increased localization and penetration rates[1] Risk Factors - The report cautions about risks such as the unpredictability of new equipment deployment, uncertainties in military pricing mechanisms, and the difficulty in forecasting the impact of other business segments on military enterprises' profitability[2]