海外宏观札记：紧缩交易压力加码

Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced a broad decline, with technology stocks showing weakness, while Bitcoin continued to surge, increasing by 19.26% week-to-date (WTD) and 117.16% year-to-date (YTD) [7] - The U.S. 10-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, up from 2.4% the previous month, while core CPI remained steady at 3.3% [13] - U.S. retail sales rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October, exceeding market expectations, driven primarily by automotive and electronics sales [19] Economic Dynamics - The market is adjusting its expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [3] - The tightening trade is currently resonating across expectations, realities, and transactions, with growth and inflation expectations being revised upward [20] - The upcoming December FOMC meeting will likely see the Fed update its economic forecasts based on recent data and the implications of Trump's new policies [3] International Factors - Weak fundamentals in Europe and Japan, along with political instability in Germany, have contributed to the strengthening of the dollar and intensified tightening trades [3] - The European Central Bank faces increased pressure for rate cuts, with economic risks diverging from the U.S. [3] Future Outlook - The end of the Trump trade's expectation phase may shift market focus back to fundamental factors, with key indicators such as employment and inflation being closely monitored [20] - The potential for stagflation-like macro shocks in the early stages of Trump's new policies could significantly impact market and policy directions in 2025 [3]