房地产行业2025年度投资策略：止跌的前提与估值的拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate industry, indicating a focus on the expansion of broad fiscal policies to support economic recovery, which is expected to stabilize the real estate market [2][5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The recovery of the real estate market is contingent upon the end of local government balance sheet contraction, which has led to a slowdown in urban expansion and infrastructure development, making it difficult to digest existing inventory [5][78]. - The report forecasts a decline in key metrics for 2025, including a -9.8% growth in national commodity housing sales area and a -10.8% decrease in sales value, alongside reductions in new construction and completion areas [2][94]. - The report emphasizes that the recovery of Return on Equity (ROE) is a critical driver for the rise of real estate stocks, drawing parallels with historical trends in the US and Japan [5][6][47]. Summary by Sections 1. How the Real Estate Market Can Stabilize - The introduction of new policies in late September has led to a rebound in new and second-hand housing transactions, with significant sales improvements noted in October [55]. - Continuous interest rate reductions are expected to support housing prices, as they lower the cost of home purchases for residents [63]. - The fundamental recovery of the real estate market and economy relies on local governments ending their balance sheet contraction [78]. 2. 2025 Real Estate Volume Data Forecast - The report estimates that the total sales area for commodity housing in 2025 will be approximately 880 million square meters, with a sales value of about 8.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of -9.8% and -10.8% respectively [94][96]. 3. Focus on Core City Investments - Real estate companies are increasingly concentrating their investments in high-energy core urban areas, as the supply-demand relationship has shifted significantly [2][5]. - Despite efforts to enhance product quality and differentiation, companies are struggling to achieve excess profits due to high competition [2][5]. 4. Key to Valuation Recovery Lies in ROE Improvement - The report highlights that the stabilization and recovery of ROE will be crucial for the upward trend of real estate stocks, with historical data supporting this assertion [5][47]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that demonstrate brand advantages and systematic product innovation capabilities, such as Greentown China, China Resources Land, and China Overseas Development [6].