Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Feiling Kes (301191) [2] Core Views - Feiling Kes is a leading domestic network equipment manufacturer with strong capabilities in high-end network equipment production [6] - The company faces short-term performance pressure due to business model changes and intensified industry competition [7] - Feiling Kes is expanding its product line in high-end data center switches and entering the white-box market [8] - The company is making breakthroughs in overseas markets and investing in upstream switch chip industry [8] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.257 billion yuan, down 15.61% YoY [7] - Net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was 104 million yuan, down 14.08% YoY [7] - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 17.87%, up 0.63 percentage points YoY [7] - Q3 2024 revenue was 434 million yuan, down 12.84% YoY but up 4.00% QoQ [7] - Q3 2024 net profit was 28 million yuan, down 9.37% YoY and 33.40% QoQ [7] Business Development - The company is developing 200G/400G/2.0T/8.0T data center switches and expanding COME modules based on domestic CPUs [8] - Feiling Kes has established stable orders and mass production delivery with Japanese and Korean customers [8] - The company invested 20 million yuan in a switch chip-related enterprise, accounting for 36.69% of the total investment [8] Financial Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.024 billion yuan, 2.614 billion yuan, and 3.258 billion yuan respectively [11] - Net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 144 million yuan, 195 million yuan, and 257 million yuan respectively [11] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 2.07 yuan, 2.82 yuan, and 3.71 yuan respectively [11] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 17.4%-17.8% from 2024 to 2026 [9] Market Performance - The stock price closed at 82.59 yuan on November 19, 2024 [2] - The 52-week price range is 56.19-108.18 yuan [2] - Total market capitalization is 5.727 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 2.164 billion yuan [2] - The stock has underperformed the HTS Composite Index by 42.81% over the past year [3] Industry Comparison - The company's valuation is based on 35-40x PE for 2025, with a reasonable value range of 98.67-112.76 yuan [11] - Comparable companies in the industry have an average PE ratio of 48x for 2024 and 33x for 2025 [12]
菲菱科思：业务模式变化业绩短期承压，成立基金投资交换芯片领域