11月USDA跟踪月报：11月USDA上调全球小麦、玉米产量预测，下调大豆产量

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agricultural sector is maintained as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The USDA's November report indicates an increase in global wheat and corn production forecasts, while soybean production is expected to decline. In China, the production forecasts for the three major crops remain unchanged from October, but corn import expectations have been lowered. The average prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans in China are projected to decrease, benefiting feed costs for livestock enterprises [7] Summary by Sections Wheat - For the 2024/25 season, China's wheat production is forecasted to reach 140 million tons, an increase of 3.41 million tons from the previous season. Domestic consumption is expected to decrease by 2.5 million tons to 151 million tons, while the ending stock remains unchanged, resulting in a rise in the stock-to-use ratio from 87.03% to 88.16% [4][46] - Globally, wheat production and consumption are projected to increase, with the ending stock slightly decreasing. The global wheat production forecast for 2024/25 is adjusted upwards by 650,000 tons to 795 million tons, primarily due to increased production in Kazakhstan [49] Corn - China's corn production for the 2024/25 season is expected to be 292 million tons, an increase of 3.16 million tons from the previous season. Domestic consumption is projected to rise by 6 million tons to 313 million tons, while the ending stock is expected to decrease by 5.09 million tons, leading to a decline in the stock-to-use ratio from 68.84% to 65.90% [5][55] - Globally, corn production is forecasted to reach 1.219 billion tons, a decrease of 6.52 million tons from the previous season. However, global corn consumption is expected to increase by 12.13 million tons to 1.229 billion tons [59] Soybeans - China's soybean production for the 2024/25 season is projected to be 20.7 million tons, a slight decrease of 140,000 tons from the previous season. Domestic consumption is expected to rise by 5.1 million tons to 127 million tons, with the ending stock increasing by 2.7 million tons, resulting in a rise in the stock-to-use ratio from 35.54% to 36.23% [6][68] - Globally, soybean production is expected to increase to 425 million tons, an increase of 30.69 million tons from the previous season, with global consumption rising by 18.48 million tons to 402 million tons [6]