农林牧渔行业专题:11月USDA上调全球玉米、小麦产量,下调大豆产量
Huaan Securities·2024-11-20 09:21

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in global corn and wheat production while forecasting a decrease in soybean production [2] - The USDA's November 2024 forecast indicates a global corn production of 1.219 billion tons for the 2024/25 season, a decrease of 9.71 million tons from the previous season, but an increase of 2.21 million tons from the October forecast [20] - Global wheat production is projected at 795 million tons for the 2024/25 season, an increase of 4.31 million tons from the previous season [20] - Soybean production is expected to be 425 million tons, an increase of 30.67 million tons from the previous season, but a decrease of 3.52 million tons from the October forecast [20] Summary by Sections Corn - Global corn production for 2024/25 is forecasted at 1.219 billion tons, down 9.71 million tons from 2023/24, but up 2.21 million tons from the previous forecast [20] - Global corn consumption is expected to rise to 1.229 billion tons, an increase of 10 million tons from the previous season [20] - The ending stock for global corn is projected at 304 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons from the previous season [20] - The corn export volume is expected to be 190 million tons, a decrease of 5.82 million tons from the previous season [20] Wheat - Global wheat production for 2024/25 is forecasted at 795 million tons, an increase of 4.31 million tons from 2023/24 [20] - Global wheat consumption is expected to reach 803 million tons, an increase of 5.66 million tons from the previous season [20] - The ending stock for global wheat is projected at 258 million tons, a decrease of 8.68 million tons from the previous season [20] Soybeans - Global soybean production is forecasted at 425 million tons for 2024/25, an increase of 30.67 million tons from 2023/24, but a decrease of 3.52 million tons from the October forecast [20] - Global soybean consumption is expected to be 402 million tons, an increase of 18.10 million tons from the previous season [20] - The ending stock for global soybeans is projected at 132 million tons, an increase of 19.32 million tons from the previous season [20]