TRIP.COM(TCOM) 招银国际·2024-11-20 02:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a target price of 61.32 [10][19]. Core Insights - Trip.com Group reported solid business growth, with total revenue for Q3 2024 reaching RMB 15.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 2% [7][8]. - The company’s non-GAAP operating profit for the same period was RMB 5.5 billion, surpassing expectations by 6%, driven by better-than-expected sales and marketing expenditure optimization [7][8]. - The report highlights the robust recovery in outbound travel and the company's ongoing international expansion efforts, which are expected to contribute to long-term revenue and profit growth [7][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY 2024, total revenue is projected to be RMB 52.985 billion, representing an 18.9% year-on-year growth [13]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to reach RMB 16.812 billion in FY 2024, reflecting a 28.6% increase compared to the previous year [13]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23-25% for non-GAAP operating profit over the next few years [7][9]. Booking and Revenue Growth - The report indicates that domestic hotel bookings in Q3 2024 grew in the mid to high single digits year-on-year, with a similar trend expected to continue into Q4 2024 [8]. - Outbound flight and hotel bookings have recovered to 120% of 2019 levels, outperforming the industry average by approximately 40 percentage points [8][9]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 12.4 billion in Q4 2024, a 20% increase year-on-year, which is above market expectations [8]. Cost Management and Profitability - Trip.com’s non-GAAP operating profit margin for Q3 2024 was 34.4%, exceeding market expectations by 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to better-than-expected sales and marketing expenses [9]. - The report projects that the non-GAAP operating profit margin will reach 20.7% for Q4 2024 and 30.3% for the full year [9]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of $71.00 corresponds to non-GAAP P/E ratios of 21.3x and 20.7x for FY 2024 and FY 2025, respectively [19]. - The report emphasizes a positive outlook on Trip.com’s global expansion, particularly in the Asian market, where online penetration remains low [9][19].