纺织服饰行业：从上一轮贸易摩擦，看美国总统选举对纺织服装行业的影响

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the textile and apparel industry, particularly focusing on companies with strong domestic sales and those with lower exposure to U.S. exports [5]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that Donald Trump is likely to win the upcoming U.S. presidential election, which could impact the textile and apparel industry based on historical precedents [3][28]. - A review of Trump's previous term indicates that while many of his campaign promises were partially fulfilled, the actual tariff increases on textiles were lower than initially proposed, leading to a manageable impact on the industry [3][52]. - The report highlights that the textile and apparel sector's exposure to tariffs was less severe than expected, with most products facing tariffs of 7.5% or 25% [3][55]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the potential implications of Trump's election on the textile and apparel industry, drawing comparisons to his previous term's policies and their effects [28]. Review of Trump's Previous Term - Trump's campaign promises included significant tax cuts and trade reforms, with varying degrees of success in implementation [29]. - The actual tariffs imposed during his term were lower than the proposed 45% on Chinese goods, with rates ranging from 7.5% to 25% [52]. Impact of Trade Tensions - The report analyzes the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions on the textile and apparel industry, noting that the actual tariff increases were less than anticipated, resulting in limited effects on company performance [3][53]. - It details the timeline of tariff implementations and their specific impacts on various textile categories, emphasizing that many companies have adapted by diversifying their production and customer bases [56][57]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic brands in the apparel and home textile sectors, which are expected to benefit from favorable policy changes and a recovering consumer environment [5]. - It also recommends monitoring companies with low export exposure to the U.S. and those that have established overseas production to mitigate trade risks [5].