银行行业：高息定存将迎集中到期，如何看待当前存款的几个关键问题

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry in China [5] Core Insights - The deposit growth rate has experienced significant fluctuations, and the sustainability of the recovery since Q3 2024 remains uncertain. Factors influencing this include the slowdown in loan-derived deposits, regulatory policies, and changes in residents' asset allocation behavior [2][16] - The deposit interest rates are constrained by a self-regulatory mechanism, which has established a market-oriented adjustment system. Since late 2022, major banks have reduced deposit rates multiple times in response to declining broad interest rates [2][22][26] - The weakening structure of bank liabilities and deposit terms is jointly restricting the improvement of funding costs. Since Q2 2023, banks have increased their efforts to attract deposits due to a deepening deposit gap, leading to a rise in the proportion of time deposits [2][29][34] Summary by Sections Deposit Growth Trends - The deposit growth rate has shown a "big rise and fall," with a notable recovery since Q3 2024, but its sustainability is still in question. The growth rate peaked at 12.7% in March 2023, driven by excess savings during the pandemic, but has since declined due to various factors including a slowdown in loan growth and changes in asset allocation [2][16][18] Deposit Interest Rate Mechanism - The deposit interest rate is subject to a self-regulatory mechanism that has evolved over the years, allowing banks to adjust rates based on market conditions. The current structure includes a benchmark rate, self-regulatory upper limits, and actual execution rates, with significant reductions in rates observed since late 2022 [2][22][23] Liability and Deposit Structure - The structure of bank liabilities and the term structure of deposits have weakened, limiting the potential for improving funding costs. The proportion of deposits in the total interest-bearing liabilities has decreased, while the reliance on interbank liabilities has increased [2][29][34] Key Issues Regarding Current Deposits 1. Attention should be paid to the rebalancing of residents' asset allocation between deposits and broader funds. The trend of "moving" deposits has been mild this year, with a significant decline in the yields of cash management products compared to deposit rates [2][42][43] 2. The concentration of high-interest time deposits maturing is expected to improve the net interest margin. Historical estimates suggest a potential improvement of 6 to 8 basis points in net interest margins by 2025 due to the repricing of maturing deposits [2][50][53] 3. The self-regulation of interbank deposit pricing may be strengthened to manage high growth and pricing levels. This is in line with regulatory intentions to protect banks' funding costs and prevent arbitrage [2][56][58] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes: regional banks benefiting from debt resolution logic and cyclical stocks. Specific banks recommended include Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Jiangsu Bank, among others [3]