宏观及大类资产月报：特朗普将重返白宫，国内政策初现成效

Group 1: Economic Overview - The US GDP for Q3 2024 recorded a growth rate of 2.8%, slightly below the expected 3.0%[40] - Personal consumption contributed 2.46% to GDP, up from 1.90% in Q2, indicating resilient consumer spending[40] - In China, the retail sales growth in October was 4.8%, surpassing the expected 3.8% and previous 3.2%[52] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in November, bringing the target range to 4.50%-4.75%[41] - Market expectations for a further rate cut in December are at 58%, although a pause is likely due to resilient consumption and employment[41] - Following the US presidential election, the dollar index and US Treasury yields surged, reflecting market reactions to Trump's return[42] Group 3: Asset Performance - In October, domestic equity markets outperformed international markets, with A-shares rising by 2.28%[66] - The RMB index increased by 1.43%, while the South China commodity index fell by 1.41%[66] - Global bond markets showed significant weakness, with a decline of 3.35% in the Bloomberg global bond index[67]