有色金属：下游需求超预期，锂价反弹动能仍在

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Overweight [2] Core Views - Downstream demand has exceeded expectations, leading to a continuous rebound in lithium prices [2] - As of November 19, the battery-grade lithium carbonate index price is 78,513 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase [2] - The rebound in lithium prices is supported by increased downstream production and supply-side reductions, particularly overseas [2] Summary by Sections Downstream Demand - In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.463 million and 1.43 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 48% and 49.6% [2] - The installed capacity of power batteries in October was 59.2 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 8.6% and a year-on-year increase of 51% [2] Supply-Side Dynamics - Recent announcements from overseas producers indicate a reduction in lithium supply, with MinRes halting operations at its Bald Hill site due to a prolonged downturn in the lithium market [2] - The expected shipment volume for MinRes has been revised down from 120,000-145,000 tons to 60,000 tons for the 2025 fiscal year [2] Market Outlook - The lithium market is expected to maintain its momentum, with production of lithium iron phosphate in October showing a month-on-month increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of over 100% [2] - The anticipated increase in lithium prices is likely to continue due to supply constraints and robust demand from the battery sector [2]