10月财政数据点评：收入负增收窄，支出边际改善

Revenue Insights - From January to October, general public budget revenue decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year[3] - Tax revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 4.5%, marking a continuous negative growth trend[4] - Non-tax revenue increased by 15.3% year-on-year, showing a significant improvement compared to previous values[4] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 2.7% year-on-year, with a 0.7 percentage point increase from the previous value[4] - Central government expenditure rose by 7.9%, while local government expenditure only increased by 1.8%, indicating a disparity in fiscal support[4] - The completion rate for general public budget expenditure was 77.6%, reflecting a slower pace compared to the five-year average[4] Fund and Debt Management - Land transfer revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 22.9%, indicating a sluggish real estate market[5] - Government fund revenue fell by 19% year-on-year, while expenditure decreased by 3.8%[5] - Local governments achieved a 100.2% completion rate for new special bond issuance, meeting the annual target[5] Policy Implications - The introduction of the "6+4" debt resolution plan aims to alleviate local government hidden debt risks, allowing for more resources to stabilize growth[6] - Tax incentives for the real estate sector are expected to support housing demand and help stabilize the market[6] Risk Considerations - There are risks associated with fundamental recovery deviating from expectations and macro policies exceeding forecasts[7]