10月经济数据点评：消费、基建推动需求端进一步增长

Production - In October, industrial added value grew by 5.3% year-on-year, maintaining the growth trend[19] - The mining industry was the largest contributor, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.4%, up by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[19] - The growth rate of the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry decreased to 5.4%, down by 4.7 percentage points from the previous month[19] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth stabilized at 3.4% in October, supported by infrastructure investment[25] - Broad infrastructure investment cumulative growth reached 9.4%, with significant contributions from electricity, heat, gas, and water supply at 24.1%[28] - Real estate investment fell by 12.3% in October, with the decline expanding by 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[29] Consumption - Social retail sales in October increased by 3.2%, a significant rise of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[40] - Essential and discretionary consumption saw further growth, with cosmetics sales surging by 40.1% and home appliances by 39.2%[40] - Excluding automobile sales, social retail sales growth reached 4.9%, up by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[40] Outlook - The overall economic data for October indicates a positive trend, suggesting that incremental policies are gradually showing effects, creating favorable conditions for achieving annual growth targets[47] - The basic logic of recovery driven by policies remains unchanged, with domestic demand expected to continue recovering[48] - The probability of achieving the 2024 growth target has increased due to resilient external demand in the short term[48]