BABA(09988) 第一上海证券·2024-11-21 05:42Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA.US/9988.HK) with a target price of 4.1 billion, resulting in a 2.1% reduction in the number of shares outstanding this quarter [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal quarter ending September 30, 2024, Alibaba reported revenues of RMB 236.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Operating profit also grew by 5% to RMB 35.2 billion, while net profit surged by 63% to RMB 43.5 billion, primarily due to changes in equity investments [2][3]. - Adjusted net profit decreased by 9% to RMB 36.5 billion, with operating cash flow down 36% and free cash flow down 70%, attributed to increased investments in Alibaba Cloud and other operational adjustments [2][3]. - The Tmall Group's revenue grew by 1% to RMB 98.99 billion, with customer management revenue increasing by 2% to RMB 70.36 billion, while the EBITA margin improved by 2 percentage points [3][4]. Segment Performance - The overseas e-commerce segment saw a 29% revenue increase to RMB 31.67 billion, although it reported an EBITA margin of -9% [3]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue grew by 7% to RMB 29.61 billion, with public cloud services achieving double-digit growth and AI revenue increasing by triple digits [3]. - The local services segment, including platforms like Ele.me, reported a 14% revenue increase to RMB 17.73 billion, indicating strong order growth [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 are projected at RMB 1,003.4 billion, RMB 1,091.4 billion, and RMB 1,205.5 billion respectively, with operating profits expected to reach RMB 147.8 billion, RMB 153.9 billion, and RMB 173.7 billion [4][5]. - The diluted earnings per share are anticipated to be 7.2, and $8.2 for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [4][5].