10月社零报告专题：10月社零超预期，关注后续政策持续落地

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Market Weight" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within a range of -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [59]. Core Insights - In October 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,396 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which exceeded the consensus expectation of 3.9% [10][11]. - Both urban and rural markets maintained growth, with online and offline consumption performing well, benefiting from the early "Double 11" promotions and strong consumption during the National Day holiday [10][11]. - The report highlights that rural market sales growth continues to outpace urban sales due to rapid income growth among rural residents and ongoing development of county-level commercial systems [10][11]. Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - The overall retail sales in October 2024 grew by 4.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations [10]. - Urban retail sales amounted to 39,255 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, while rural retail sales reached 6,141 billion yuan, growing by 4.9% [10][11]. By Category - Both dining and retail sales showed year-on-year increases, with dining services totaling 4,952 billion yuan, up 3.2%, and retail sales reaching 40,444 billion yuan, up 5.0% [21]. - The report notes that optional consumption categories, such as sports and entertainment products, clothing, and cosmetics, experienced significant growth, with increases of 26.7%, 8.0%, and 40.1% respectively [29]. Price Performance - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% year-on-year in October 2024, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9% [32][39]. - The report indicates that food prices, particularly for fresh vegetables and fruits, saw significant year-on-year increases, while non-food prices showed mixed results [39]. Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate in October 2024 was 5.0%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [48][50]. - The unemployment rate for migrant workers was reported at 4.7%, indicating a slight increase but still better than the overall urban unemployment rate [52]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the tobacco and alcohol sectors may see a rebound due to improved channel management and ongoing consumption policies [56]. - In the cosmetics sector, companies like Giant Bio and Proya are highlighted for their strong performance, with recommendations to focus on brands with strong product capabilities and consumer recognition [56].