国君宏观|汇率研究 · 合集

Group 1: Exchange Rate as a Key Indicator - The exchange rate remains a crucial variable for observing policy steps, indicating a return to a combination of "loose monetary policy + interest rate maintenance + stable exchange rate" constraints[1] - Recent expansion of the US-China interest rate differential and the rebound of foreign exchange swap premiums suggest a high likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing interest rate cuts[1] - The expectation of a stable exchange rate is still not firmly established, with the policy maintaining a strong stance on exchange rate stability[3] Group 2: Impact of Monetary Policy - Following the Federal Reserve's initiation of interest rate cuts in September, a series of monetary and fiscal policies have been rapidly implemented, leading to a return of the RMB exchange rate to a stable range[2] - The political bureau meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, highlighting the increasing focus on exchange rate stability[4] - The US-China bond yield differential has rebounded, which is critical for alleviating capital outflow and exchange rate depreciation pressures[4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risks - The swap premium rate has risen to 0.6%, indicating shifts in market expectations and potential policy impacts[6] - The risk of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts being less than expected poses a concern for the US-China bond yield differential[8] - The current environment of global liquidity facing a turning point necessitates caution regarding policy reversals that could lead to volatility in international financial markets[4]