市场热点探析：特朗普1.0期间外资流动的启示

Group 1 - The report highlights increased volatility in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks following the announcement of Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 4.1% from November 7 to November 20, and significant capital outflow of 82.9 billion HKD in November [3][14]. - It is noted that the periods of Trump's presidency (Trump 1.0) from January 20, 2017, to January 20, 2021, did not mark critical points for capital outflows in the Hong Kong market, with a total outflow exceeding 400 billion HKD during this time [4][20]. - The report indicates that the significant capital outflow in the Hong Kong market occurred primarily in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, rather than during Trump's initial term or the trade war [4][20]. Group 2 - The A-share market experienced a consistent inflow of foreign capital during Trump's presidency, with net inflows each year from 2017 to 2021, except for a temporary decline in 2020 due to the pandemic [5][28]. - The report anticipates that the market may experience a short-term adjustment after previous gains, which could be beneficial for a long-term bullish trend, supported by positive policy and economic indicators [5][29]. - Recent economic data shows a year-on-year increase in retail sales of 4.8% in October, with industrial output growing by 5.3% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in the economic recovery [5][29].