电气设备行业：25年锂价会涨么？

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Positive" investment rating for the electrical equipment industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the expected increase in lithium supply by 180,000 tons of LCE in 2025, with a focus on the supply dynamics from Chile, Argentina, and Africa [40]. - It emphasizes that the demand for lithium, particularly from the electric vehicle sector, remains optimistic despite potential uncertainties in policy and market conditions [45][52]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the production and supply chain developments in key lithium-producing regions to gauge future price movements [41][84]. Summary by Sections Supply - It is projected that 180,000 tons of LCE will be added to the lithium supply in 2025, with a significant portion coming from Chile and Argentina [40]. - Chile's lithium production is expected to reach approximately 314,000 tons in 2025, with SQM and ALB being the primary producers [11]. - Argentina's lithium production is anticipated to gradually increase, with total capacity expected to rise to 254,000 tons by 2025 [16]. - In Tibet and Qinghai, new projects are expected to contribute to supply, although progress has been slow due to regulatory and environmental challenges [20]. Demand - The report indicates that the demand for lithium, particularly from the electric vehicle market, is expected to remain strong, driven by policies and consumer preferences [45]. - In China, the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy has significantly boosted electric vehicle sales, with a year-on-year increase of over 50% in October 2024 [52]. - The report notes that the penetration of PHEV and EREV models is crucial for further increasing the market share of electric vehicles in China [61]. Supply-Demand Balance - The report suggests that while the lithium market may experience an oversupply in 2025, demand growth is expected to outpace supply growth, potentially leading to price rebounds [79]. - It emphasizes the need to track geopolitical and production conditions in major lithium-producing regions to understand future market dynamics [41][84]. Key Issues to Monitor - The report identifies three critical issues to watch: the continuation of the "old-for-new" policy in China, the introduction of new electric vehicle models in Europe and the U.S., and the production ramp-up of EREV models by Chinese manufacturers [73].