NIO(09866) 开源证券·2024-11-21 14:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for NIO is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - NIO's main brand requires a boost in sales momentum, with expectations for significant contributions from its budget sub-brands in 2025. Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards to 65.9 billion, 87.6 billion, and 93.4 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 33%, and 7% respectively. Non-GAAP net losses for the same period are projected to be -18.8 billion, -15.8 billion, and -14.5 billion CNY, with adjusted EPS of -9.2, -7.6, and -6.9 CNY [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, NIO reported revenue of 18.67 billion CNY, a 7% quarter-on-quarter increase, but below Bloomberg consensus expectations of 19.19 billion CNY. The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles decreased by 1.2% to 270,000 CNY due to increased promotions. Gross margin improved by 1.0 percentage points to 10.7%, driven by a 0.9 percentage point increase in automotive gross margin to 13.1% due to lower material costs [7] Sales and Delivery Outlook - NIO's guidance for Q4 2024 indicates a delivery target of 72,000 to 75,000 vehicles. The delivery of the budget sub-brand L60 is expected to ramp up, with 4,300 units delivered in October and a target of 10,000 units in December. The main brand's sales momentum is anticipated to rely on the refresh of older models, while the budget sub-brand is expected to drive overall sales growth in 2025 [8] Market Positioning - The product lineup for NIO in 2025 will include the luxury sedan ET9, two family SUVs from the L60 sub-brand, and the first model from the new budget brand Firefly. This comprehensive product matrix aims to cover price ranges from 150,000 to 800,000 CNY. The main brand's sales are expected to rebound with the refresh of existing models, while the new sub-brands are projected to stabilize production and increase volume [6][8]