Industry Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" (first-time rating) [1] Core Views - HBM is essential in the AI era, comparable in importance to GPU/TPU, with the industry space growing rapidly [3] - HBM offers four major advantages over traditional DRAM: high bandwidth, high capacity, low power consumption, and small size [3] - The global HBM industry revenue was 18.3 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 300%, with further growth expected in 2025 [3] - HBM's domestic production rate in China is almost 0, presenting a significant opportunity for domestic substitution [4] - The domestic substitution of HBM is accelerating, driven by concerns over potential sanctions, which could lead to a "Davis Double" opportunity for the sector [4] - HBM production requires both DRAM production and advanced packaging capabilities, areas where domestic companies still lag behind international standards [4] Key Companies to Watch - Equipment Sector: Saiteng Precision, Jingzhida, Kingsemi, Hwatsing, AMEC, Piotech, NAURA, ACM Research, Xinyichang [7] - Materials Sector: Lier New Materials, Huahai Chenke, Yake Technology, Qiangli New Materials [7] - Packaging and Testing Sector: Tongfu Microelectronics, Biwin Storage, JCET, ChipMOS [7] - Foundry: Wuhan Xinxin (IPO inquiry) [7] HBM Market Overview - HBM is a next-generation AI accelerator memory chip, based on 3D stacking technology, offering high bandwidth and energy efficiency [35] - The HBM market is dominated by SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, with SK Hynix holding the largest market share [66] - The HBM market is expected to grow rapidly, with 2024 revenue projected at 4.35 billion in 2023 [49] - The rapid growth of HBM is driven by increased demand from AI chips, with global AI chip HBM demand expected to grow from 1.92 billion Gb in 2023 to 6.37 billion Gb in 2024, a 232% increase [55] HBM Manufacturing Challenges - The core challenge in HBM production lies in advanced packaging technologies, including TSV, micro bumping, and stacking bonding [83] - TSV (Through-Silicon Via) is the most critical and costly part of HBM manufacturing, directly impacting yield rates [79] - The HBM manufacturing process involves multiple steps, including TSV creation, micro bumping, and stacking bonding, each requiring precise execution [83] Domestic HBM Development - Domestic HBM production is nearly non-existent, with significant gaps in DRAM and advanced packaging capabilities [154] - Domestic companies are actively researching and developing HBM, but face challenges in achieving mass production due to technological and process limitations [156] - The domestic HBM industry is expected to follow two potential paths: IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturing) or a collaborative model between foundries and packaging/testing companies [170] HBM Technology Evolution - HBM has evolved through five generations, with the latest being HBM3E, offering up to 1.18TB/s bandwidth and 16-layer stacking [72] - The next generation, HBM4, is expected to offer even higher bandwidth and more layers, with development ongoing [72] - GPU manufacturers are expected to adopt HBM3E 12-layer products in the near future, further driving demand for advanced HBM technologies [76]
HBM产业链专题报告汇报：国内AI发展胜负手，国产化迫在眉睫
华源证券·2024-11-21 23:20