东兴证券：东兴晨报-20241122

Core Insights - The report indicates that domestic consumption is gradually recovering, supported by a series of consumption policies, with stable growth in the catering sector. The recovery of the catering industry chain is expected to be a key investment theme in the food and beverage sector next year, particularly focusing on the condiment segment [2][16][17]. Consumption Data - In October, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,396 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. This marks the highest growth rate in the second half of the year and has shown a continuous acceleration over the past two months [2][16]. - The catering industry generated a total revenue of 4,952 billion yuan in October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Although the monthly growth rate is slower than at the beginning of the year, overall catering consumption remains stable [2][16]. Industry Recovery - As catering consumption recovers, the demand across the upstream and downstream sectors related to the catering industry, including liquor, condiments, and beer, is also expected to gradually recover. The condiment industry, in particular, is anticipated to see robust growth as the peak season for consumption approaches during the New Year and Spring Festival [3][17]. - The current overall valuation of the condiment industry stands at 38 times, significantly lower than the 10-year average of 51.3 times, indicating potential for valuation recovery. Key beneficiaries in this sector include companies like Haitian Flavoring and Fuling Zhacai [3][17]. Market Performance - Last week, various sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry experienced declines, with the following weekly performance: Huangjiu (Changjiang) -1.26%, beer -1.89%, other alcoholic beverages -3.38%, meat products -3.39%, soft drinks -3.40%, fermented condiments -4.05%, liquor -4.81%, dairy products -6.94%, and other foods -8.05% [4][18]. - In the liquor sector, the top five performing companies were Jin Feng Jiu Ye +2.87%, ST Tongpu +1.01%, and Weilang Co. +0.36%, while the bottom five included China Resources Beer -13.22%, Budweiser APAC -11.66%, and Huangtai Jiu Ye -10.22% [4][18]. Hong Kong Market Review - The Hong Kong essential consumer index fell by 7.12% last week, with key companies showing the following performance: China Feihe -5.88%, Zhou Hei Ya -5.11%, and Nongfu Spring -8.45% [5][19].