Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for XPeng-W (09868 HK) with a target price of HKD 57 8 and USD 14 9 for XPEV N [2][3] Core Views - XPeng is in a strong product cycle with improving profitability expected by 2025 [2] - New models like Mona M03 and P7+ are driving sales growth with Q3 revenue reaching RMB 10 1 billion up 18% YoY and 25% QoQ [2] - Q3 gross margin exceeded expectations at 15 3% up 1 3pct QoQ driven by cost reductions and economies of scale [2] - The company aims to achieve breakeven at the operational level by the end of 2025 [2] - XPeng's overseas profitability is higher than domestic due to its premium positioning in international markets [2] Financial Performance - Q3 vehicle sales revenue was RMB 8 8 billion up 12% YoY while service and other revenue surged 91% YoY to RMB 1 3 billion [2] - Q3 net loss narrowed by 53% YoY to RMB 1 8 billion with a net loss margin of 18% [2] - Non-GAAP net loss was RMB 1 53 billion with a net loss margin of 15 2% [2] - Q3 vehicle sales gross margin improved to 8 6% up 2 2pct QoQ while service and other gross margin rose to 60 1% up 5 9pct QoQ [2] Product and Sales Outlook - Mona M03 and P7+ are expected to drive monthly sales to record highs in 2025 [2] - XPeng plans to launch 4 new models and multiple facelifts in 2025 [2] - The company targets monthly sales of 30 000 units in November 2024 and P7+ deliveries of over 10 000 units in December 2024 [2] Technological Advancements - XPeng introduced the Kunpeng Super Electric System featuring next-generation range-extending technology [2] - The company plans to enhance its intelligent driving capabilities with the Tianji 5 5 system aiming for one intervention per 100 kilometers by Q4 2025 [2] Overseas Expansion - Q3 overseas sales accounted for 15% of total sales with XPeng leading Chinese brands in the European mid-to-high-end EV market [2] - The overseas sales network expanded to 30+ countries and 110+ stores by Q3 2024 with plans to reach 140+ stores by end of 2024 and 300+ stores by 2025 [2] Financial Projections - XPeng is expected to sell 190 000 units in 2024 400 000 units in 2025 and 450 000 units in 2026 [2] - Total revenue is projected to reach RMB 40 8 billion in 2024 RMB 73 2 billion in 2025 and RMB 88 2 billion in 2026 [2] - Non-GAAP net profit margin is forecasted at -14% in 2024 -5% in 2025 and 2% in 2026 [2]
小鹏汽车-W：强势产品周期，看好2025年盈利性改善